Diesel has become the single biggest variable in trucking economics this year. The Energy Information Administration’s October 20 survey put the national average at $6.276 a gallon, up 10 cents in a week and $2.66 higher than a year ago. On the West Coast the average is $7.394, and even outside California it is $6.659. The Rocky Mountain region sits at $6.422 and the Midwest at $6.352. The cheapest diesel in the country, on the Gulf Coast, is still $5.90.
For a long-haul tractor averaging around 6.5 miles per gallon, every dollar added to the price of diesel adds roughly 15 cents to the cost of every mile. At today’s prices, fuel alone is approaching a dollar a mile. That is a structural shift in a business where net margins are often measured in single digits.
Why prices are this high
The driver behind this run is geopolitical. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil shipping lanes in the world, has been effectively closed for more than 200 days, and crude oil has been trading near $100 a barrel. Distillates like diesel and jet fuel have been hit especially hard because global supply chains for refined products were already tight before the disruption.
Washington has tried several short-term measures, including an October executive order that allows off-road “red dye” diesel to be used through the end of 2026, and there are reports of a controversial supply arrangement with Russia. But as most analysts point out, the only lasting fix is reopening the strait. Until then, fleets should assume volatility is the new baseline.
Where the margin pressure really comes from
Most shipper contracts include a fuel surcharge, so it is easy to assume fuel is a pass-through. In practice it rarely is. Surcharge schedules are tied to a weekly index that lags real purchases. They are calculated on loaded miles, while trucks also burn fuel deadheading, idling at docks and detouring. And many schedules were designed for a much lower price band, so they do not scale cleanly at $6 or $7.
C.H. Robinson’s October market update notes that carriers are telling them exactly this: surcharges are not covering idle time, extended routing and deadhead. That gap lands directly on the carrier’s bottom line, and the smallest carriers feel it first.
Practical moves for fleets right now
- Renegotiate the surcharge schedule, not just the rate. Extend tables to cover today’s price range and consider regional indexes for West Coast lanes, where the gap to the national average is more than a dollar.
- Attack idle time. Auxiliary power units, battery-powered HVAC and idle-shutdown settings pay back faster at $6 diesel than at $4. So does charging detention for long dock waits.
- Use the data you already have. Most fleets have telematics that report fuel economy by driver, truck and route. Coaching on speed, progressive shifting and cruise use can move fleet MPG meaningfully without a single capital purchase.
- Buy smarter. Fuel card networks, discount programs and in-cab fuel optimization tools that route drivers to the lowest-cost stop on their path can add up to real savings across a fleet.
- Revisit speed policy. Aerodynamic drag rises sharply with speed. Lowering governed speed even a few miles per hour cuts fuel burn, and on many lanes it costs little in transit time.
A word to shippers
Shippers have a role here too. Every hour a truck sits at a dock with the engine running burns fuel that the carrier will eventually price into the rate. Shippers who offer firm appointments, live-unload discipline, drop-trailer programs and fast check-in are effectively lowering their own transportation costs. In a fuel crisis, being a “shipper of choice” is not just about relationships; it is about measurable gallons saved.
Shippers should also expect carriers to ask for surcharge updates, and treat those conversations as risk-sharing rather than price gouging. A carrier that loses money on every load because its surcharge table stopped at $5 is not a carrier that will still be there for peak season.
The technology angle
I spend my days around intelligent transportation systems and connected-vehicle technology, and fuel crises tend to accelerate adoption of tools that were already making sense. Signal priority and connected-corridor deployments that keep trucks moving through urban corridors reduce stop-and-go fuel waste. Better dock scheduling cuts idle. Route optimization that accounts for elevation, congestion and fuel price, not just distance, is a margin tool.
There is also a renewed conversation about alternative powertrains. Battery-electric and natural gas trucks look different on a total-cost basis when diesel is above $6, especially for regional and drayage duty cycles. Federal emissions mandates have been rolled back this year, which removes the regulatory push. But high and volatile diesel prices could end up being a stronger market signal than any rule ever was.
Bottom line
Nobody controls the price of diesel. Fleets do control how efficiently they use it, how well their contracts reflect it, and how quickly they adapt. The carriers that treat fuel as a managed cost center rather than a pass-through will be the ones still standing when prices eventually come back down.