President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on key U.S. trade partners has reignited concerns across the logistics and transportation sectors—particularly within the trucking industry. The administration’s decision to impose a baseline 10% tariff on most imported goods and a 25% tariff on auto imports—excluding heavy-duty trucks—marks a sharp escalation in trade policy, signaling potential disruption across domestic supply chains.

While commercial trucks themselves are not directly targeted by the new automotive tariffs, the broader implications of rising input costs, reduced import volumes, and reshuffling trade routes are poised to impact freight flows, equipment pricing, and carrier profitability.

A Freight Slowdown on the Horizon

Industry experts warn that after a brief spike in imports ahead of the April 3 tariff deadline, the trucking sector could experience a sharp contraction in freight demand. This “frontloading” phenomenon—where companies accelerate shipments ahead of tariff enforcement—has led to a temporary surge in cross-border truck traffic, particularly along corridors such as IH-35 from Mexico into the U.S.

Hamish Woodrow, Head of Strategic Analytics at Motive, told CNBC that “we expect to see a drop as early as the next two weeks,” citing data from major ports and warehouses indicating a rapid decline in new order activity. Similarly, Uber Freight observed record volumes moving northbound from Mexico in recent days, as companies raced to stay ahead of potential supply chain disruptions.

However, the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) Truck Tonnage Index reported a 3% increase in February, buoyed by this preemptive shipping behavior. Whether this momentum can be sustained under rising economic pressure remains uncertain.

Tariff Costs and Industry Sentiment

The administration’s tariff policy has drawn mixed reactions. ATA President & CEO Chris Spear acknowledged that exempting Canada and Mexico from the new 10% baseline tariffs was “a welcome reprieve” for cross-border freight. However, Spear cautioned that USMCA non-compliant goods still face a 25% tariff and noted that “the tariffs announced today have potential to depress freight volumes and increase equipment costs.”

Industry voices are growing increasingly concerned about the economic ripple effects. The National Association of Manufacturers warned that the high costs of tariffs could hinder investments and limit job creation, while the National Retail Federation stressed that “tariffs are a tax paid by U.S. importers and passed on to American consumers.”

In a fragile economic environment already facing inflationary pressures, increased costs for raw materials, vehicles, and consumer goods may further dampen demand, causing downstream impacts on freight volumes.

Implications for Truck Pricing and Equipment Availability

Heavy-duty truck pricing could be significantly affected if the current tariffs remain in place. According to S&P Global Mobility, more than 40% of Class 8 trucks sold in the U.S. are assembled in Mexico or Canada, with parts often crossing borders multiple times during production.

ATA estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico-origin trucks could add as much as $35,000 to the cost of a new Class 8 tractor. This increase could prove especially burdensome for small and mid-size carriers, many of whom are already struggling to modernize their fleets amid compressed margins and limited access to capital.

Supply chain disruptions are also likely. The Vehicle Suppliers Association (MEMA) notes that 82% of suppliers expect the tariffs on Mexican goods to negatively impact their business, while 68% say the same about Canadian tariffs. Delays in sourcing parts or assembling vehicles could hamper equipment availability and extend lead times for new truck orders.

Cross-Border Freight Under Pressure

The highly integrated North American supply chain—bolstered in recent years by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—is now under strain. Cross-border trucking accounts for the majority of U.S. surface trade with both Mexico and Canada, and any tariff-induced slowdown could reverberate throughout the broader economy.

Data from Q1 2025 shows truck crossings from Mexico increased by 19.3% year-over-year, while Canadian truck crossings dipped by 4.7%. This suggests that even as trade with Mexico surges, uncertainty and tightening border policies may already be deterring Canadian freight.

Tom Perrone, SVP of Global Professional Services at project44, noted that “a higher proportion of freight being searched on both sides of the border could slow the flow of goods and increase transit times.” In an industry where time is money, such delays can quickly erode operational efficiency.

Long-Term Uncertainty and Strategic Outlook

Beyond the immediate disruption, questions loom about the long-term trajectory of the administration’s trade policy. Trump has signaled additional tariffs are forthcoming, including on products like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy imports, and key manufacturing inputs such as copper and aluminum.

The implications are profound. Manufacturers may look to reconfigure supply chains or shift production overseas to avoid costly tariffs—moves that could undercut domestic freight demand. According to S&P Global Ratings, a six- to eight-week disruption would take a year to recover from, impacting truck manufacturers, suppliers, and logistics providers alike.

In a March 5 statement, MEMA warned that persistent tariffs could lead to layoffs, delayed investments, and the relocation of production outside the U.S. This is especially concerning for an industry that relies on cross-border collaboration and scale to remain competitive.

Conclusion: Navigating a Shifting Trade Landscape

The trucking industry is bracing for a period of volatility driven by tariff-related shocks to freight volume, equipment pricing, and international trade flows. While some sectors may see short-term gains from early shipments and tariff exemptions, the overall outlook suggests increased cost pressures and mounting uncertainty.

As manufacturers, carriers, and shippers adapt to this evolving landscape, agility will be essential. Investing in scenario planning, strengthening supplier relationships, and maintaining real-time visibility into global supply chains will be key strategies for weathering the storm.

With the potential for prolonged disruption, stakeholders across the freight ecosystem must prepare for a complex and rapidly changing policy environment—where every border crossing and tariff line can carry billions in economic consequence.