The re-election of Donald Trump for a second presidential term has raised significant questions about the future of various industries in the United States, with the commercial zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) trucking sector being one of the most impacted. This sector, which encompasses trucks, vans, and heavy-duty vehicles that operate without traditional combustion engines, has been a focal point of both regulatory and economic discussions in recent years. While Trump’s administration has historically favored deregulation and promoted fossil fuel development, there are several factors to consider in how his second term could shape the landscape for ZEVs in commercial trucking. 

1. Regulatory Landscape and Environmental Policies

Throughout his first term, Trump prioritized deregulation, often rolling back Obama-era environmental policies. His administration’s approach was rooted in reducing the regulatory burden on industries, which included loosening emissions standards for the automotive sector and reducing federal oversight on environmental regulations. For instance, his administration aimed to roll back the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, which had set ambitious targets for fuel efficiency.

This pattern suggests that a second Trump administration may continue a deregulatory approach, potentially relaxing or delaying federal incentives and mandates for ZEV adoption. Without federal mandates, adopting zero-emission vehicles in the commercial trucking sector could slow, as companies may lack the regulatory push to transition. However, certain states, especially California, have been proactive in implementing their own stringent emission standards. California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule, which requires truck manufacturers to increase the percentage of zero-emission trucks sold, could continue to drive ZEV adoption regardless of federal policy, leading to a patchwork regulatory landscape across the U.S.

2. Federal Funding and Incentives

Federal grants, subsidies, and tax credits have been key drivers of ZEV adoption in the commercial sector. Programs like the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) and funding from the Department of Energy have offered incentives for companies to adopt cleaner technologies, helping to offset the costs associated with purchasing zero-emission vehicles.

The Trump administration has generally supported tax incentives that bolster industry growth but with a focus on fossil fuels and traditional energy sectors. Given the administration’s history of supporting oil and gas industries, it is uncertain whether his second term will prioritize similar funding for zero-emission technologies. However, there may still be avenues for bipartisan support, particularly in programs that tie ZEV adoption to national security, economic competitiveness, or energy independence goals.

3. Economic Impact and Market Demand

The commercial trucking industry has been under increasing pressure to adopt zero-emission technologies due to rising fuel costs, potential carbon pricing in various markets, and consumer demand for sustainable practices. Large logistics and e-commerce companies such as Amazon and Walmart have publicly committed to ambitious sustainability goals, and the demand for zero-emission vehicles from these corporations could drive the ZEV market forward regardless of federal policy.

Market demand, combined with state-level policies, could create an environment where ZEV adoption continues to grow in the trucking sector, even in a deregulated federal landscape. However, the cost of ZEVs, including electric and hydrogen-powered trucks, remains a significant barrier for many smaller carriers. Without federal incentives or grants to offset these costs, the transition may be limited to larger companies that can afford the capital investment, potentially leaving smaller carriers behind.

4. Research and Development in ZEV Technologies

Investment in research and development (R&D) is essential for advancing zero-emission technologies, particularly in areas such as battery range, hydrogen fuel cell infrastructure, and vehicle efficiency. Federal support for R&D could play a significant role in the pace of technological advancements in the ZEV sector. During Trump’s first term, funding for specific environmental research programs was reduced; however, initiatives related to innovation and technology have received bipartisan support in the past, mainly when framed as beneficial to American industry and competitiveness.

Should the Trump administration decide to support R&D for ZEV technologies as part of a broader industrial policy, it could stimulate advances that make zero-emission trucking more feasible and affordable. However, if R&D funding continues to favor fossil fuel-based technologies, advancements in zero-emission commercial vehicles may rely more heavily on private sector investments or state-funded initiatives.

5. Infrastructure Development

One of the most significant challenges facing ZEV adoption in the trucking sector is the need for more infrastructure for charging and refueling electric and hydrogen-powered trucks. Developing a nationwide charging and refueling network would require substantial investment and coordination. Although Trump’s administration has favored infrastructure spending, much of the focus has been on traditional infrastructure projects, like roads, bridges, and airports, rather than specific green energy infrastructure.

If the federal government chooses not to prioritize the development of ZEV infrastructure, states, and private entities may need to step in to create charging and refueling networks, though this approach could result in slower and fragmented growth. In states with large logistics hubs, such as California and Texas, local governments and private companies may still push for ZEV infrastructure, but the pace and scale of nationwide infrastructure expansion could be significantly reduced.

6. International Trade and Global Competitiveness

The commercial trucking sector is part of a global industry that is increasingly moving toward zero-emission technologies, with major economies like the European Union and China investing heavily in ZEVs as part of their climate goals. If the U.S. lags in ZEV adoption, there could be implications for American competitiveness in the global market, particularly in exports of vehicles and related technologies.

Furthermore, as other countries implement carbon pricing or emissions-based tariffs, U.S.-based companies that rely on fossil-fuel-powered trucks may face higher costs when trading internationally. A Trump administration that prioritizes domestic industry and traditional energy sources may not actively pursue ZEV-friendly trade policies, potentially impacting the ability of U.S. companies to compete in markets with strong emissions regulations.

7. Potential for Public-Private Partnerships

Despite federal policy trends, there is potential for public-private partnerships to advance ZEV adoption in the trucking industry. Corporations with strong commitments to sustainability may collaborate with state governments or other entities to fund infrastructure projects or pilot programs. Trump’s business-friendly approach could support such partnerships as long as they align with economic growth and job creation goals.

Conclusion: The Outlook for ZEV Trucking Under a Second Trump Presidency

The re-election of Donald Trump is likely to result in a complex and nuanced impact on the commercial zero-emission vehicle trucking sector. While a deregulatory approach may slow the push for ZEV adoption on a federal level, strong market demand, state-level mandates, and corporate sustainability goals could still drive the transition forward. Without robust federal incentives or infrastructure support, ZEV adoption may be concentrated among large corporations and states with strict emissions standards, potentially widening the gap between large and small carriers.

In the global context, the U.S. needs to catch up as other economies prioritize ZEV adoption. However, bipartisan support for technological innovation could still lead to advancements in ZEV technologies if framed as beneficial to American industry. The role of federal policy is less about mandates and more about supporting R & D, fostering public-private partnerships, and ensuring that U.S.-based companies remain competitive in the global market.

Ultimately, the future of zero-emission commercial trucking in the U.S. will depend not only on federal policies but also on the actions of states, corporations, and global economic trends, each contributing to a transportation industry that continues to balance economic growth with environmental considerations.

Joseph L. Soliz

Visionary Advocate for Transportation Technology